Mark Parsons, ATB ECONOMICS | September 25, 2024

Alberta bound continues: Province leads in population growth

‘Alberta bound, Alberta bound

It's good to be Alberta bound’

—Gordon Lightfoot

Hot off the demographic data presses, we are sending a second Twenty-Four today summarizing today’s release of the latest population estimates from Statistics Canada.

Population growth continues to run red hot. Alberta’s population is quickly closing in on the 5 million mark. It stood at 4.89 million as of July 1, 2024, up 46,200 in the second quarter for a nation- leading increase of 1.0%.

Over the last four quarters, an astonishing 204,209 people have been added to the province (the equivalent of about two Red Deers), representing a growth rate of 4.4%. Alberta’s population grew faster than any other province over this period, far exceeding the national growth rate of 3%.

The differentiator is interprovincial migration, which shows few signs of slowing as people continue to flock to Alberta from the rest of Canada. Alberta gained 9,654 people (on a net basis) from other provinces and territories in the second quarter of 2024. This was the 12th quarter in a row in which Alberta’s population grew from interprovincial migration, a turnaround from the quarterly losses during the period between mid-2015 and mid-2021.

Where are people coming from? Primarily B.C. and Ontario, a similar story to previous quarters. Alberta gained 7,679 from those two provinces last quarter. Yet migration flows have been widespread, with Alberta gaining residents (on a net basis) from every province over the last year. Over the latest one-year period (July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024), 43,750 people were added from other provinces.

We have explored in detail why people are coming to Alberta from other parts of Canada in our report Chasing Affordability: The return of interprovincial migration to Alberta. The punchline is that it’s not the usual migration cycle. People are coming for jobs, but also relatively affordable housing, and it’s not the same energy investment cycle driving those job opportunities.

On the international front, inflows remain strong. Alberta added 31,877 people through net  international migration in the second quarter, which included 14,094 non-permanent residents* (NPRs). While immigration will remain robust, NPRs are forecast to ease with the federal government announcing lower NPR targets.  This includes new limits on international students and restrictions to the temporary foreign worker program.  However, with a much lower proportion of international students and NPRs in general, Alberta is anticipated to be less impacted by these changes than other provinces.

The implications of this rapid population growth are many. It’s leading to rapid labour force entry, slowing (but not reversing) population aging, adding to infrastructure demands, putting pressure on the housing market and driving consumer spending. It’s one of the reasons Alberta’s economy is expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the country this year.

*A non‑permanent resident is a person from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada who has a work or study permit or who has claimed refugee status. Family members living with work or study permit holders are also included, unless these family members are already Canadian citizens or landed immigrants or permanent residents.

Answer to the previous trivia question: Inhabited by the Kainai First Nations and established under the provisions of Treaty 7, the Blood Reserve is the most populous reserve in Alberta.

Today’s trivia question: How old were the oldest members of the Millennial Generation on July 1, 2024?