Rob Roach, ATB ECONOMICS | August 6, 2024

Another record-breaking month: Alberta oil production in June

Oil production in Alberta continued its upward trajectory in June marking the eighth consecutive year-over-year (y/y) increase.

According to the latest Alberta Energy Regulator data, production in June came in at 3.9 million barrels per day, the highest level ever recorded in that month and 7.6% higher than the previous June. 

The extra transportation capacity provided by the recent completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion is a key reason for the increase along with relatively strong prices and ongoing U.S. refinery demand.

It’s the same story on a year-to-date YTD basis, with production over the first half the year the highest ever recorded for that period at 707 million barrels or 3.88 million barrels per day.

For context, YTD production 10 years ago in 2014 was 2.73 million barrels per day or 42% lower than in 2024.

Both oil sands (+6.1%) and conventional** production (+4.6%) were higher YTD over the first half of the year.

The accompanying increase in oil exports is a major driver of our real GDP growth forecast for Alberta this year and next.

We will have to wait for the July production numbers to properly assess the impact of the wildfires on crude oil output last month. There were indications that a portion of production was at risk in July with some companies evacuating non-essential workers, but it is unclear how much production was actually shut-in. As of today, the risk to production has abated with companies returning workers to their sites.

*Because oil production is highly seasonal, it’s best to make year-over-year and year-to-date comparisons rather than change from one month to the next.

**Includes condensate production.