Mark Parsons, ATB ECONOMICS | September 3, 2025

Forever young: Alberta’s child and youth population has surged

I consider the day after Labour Day to be the start of my new year, not January first. With our children returning to school, there are new schedules to juggle and work gets busier.

As I passed by schools yesterday, it seemed like more children and youth were milling about this year. That’s probably because there are more in Alberta. Many more.

Here are the latest stats:

There were 1.22 million Albertans aged 5-24 as of July 1, 2024*, or roughly a quarter of the province’s population. That’s an increase of 57,460 or 5.0% in just one year - outpacing all other provinces and the national gain of 3.4%. It even surpassed Alberta’s overall population growth rate of 4.4%, which is remarkable given the fast growing 65+ population.

While the trend has long been upwards, growth in this age cohort has kicked into high gear in the last three years.

Why the surge in youthfulness?

Alberta isn’t young by accident. It’s the byproduct of persistently high levels of in-migration.  Migrants tend to be young - much younger than the general population. When you get lots of young adults and families moving to Alberta, this translates into more children and youth.

International migration is the big driver nationally. But what really differentiates Alberta are interprovincial inflows.

Alberta has recorded net population inflows from other parts of the country for 11 consecutive quarters. Young Canadians have been moving to Alberta in droves, many with children or landing in Alberta and then having children.

Consider last year. Alberta added 11,800 residents aged 5-24 from other parts of the country - by far the highest of any province and in sharp contrast to net outflows from Ontario, BC and Quebec.

We believe that stronger job prospects are only part of the story, and the latest round of interprovincial migration is more closely linked to housing affordability.

The implications are many, including the need for more schools and housing. In the labour market, youth unemployment has jumped, not so much because of job losses but because of the influx of job seekers. Indeed, youth (15-24) employment is up year-to-date, but the number of youth looking for work has increased even faster.

What’s next? Population patterns are quickly shifting in Canada given the sharp slowdown in international migration, including outright declines in temporary residents (primarily international students). We see the overall population growth in Alberta slowing to 2.5% this year and 1.8% next year. This slowdown will be more pronounced among young Albertans as that’s where migration is concentrated. The more timely monthly Labour Force Survey already points to a rapid slowdown in the youth (15-24) population in Canada, though with much more persistence in Alberta.

Long-term, population growth among the 5-24 age cohort is expected to average 0.6% annually in Alberta between 2025 and 2035, according to the latest population projections from Alberta Treasury Board and Finance. This is slower than the 1.4% projected for the overall population, reflecting an easing of migration and an aging population.

*The age group 5-24 is defined as the school-aged population by Statistics Canada. We get estimates for the overall population every quarter from Statistics Canada, but age breakdowns only once a year. The latest annual estimate is as of July 1, 2024. For the 15+ population, the Labour Force Survey provides an estimate each month.

Answer to the previous trivia question: McDonald’s added the Filet-O-Fish to its nationwide U.S. menu in 1965.

Today’s trivia question: Approximately how many K-12 students are there in Alberta?