Rob Roach, ATB ECONOMICS | December 2, 2024

Higher and higher: Alberta’s oil production in October

The latest report from the Alberta Energy Regulator shows that oil production in October averaged 4.18 million barrels per day(b/d) in October, setting a new record for the month and just short of the all-time high set in December 2023 of 4.19 million b/d.

On a year-to-date basis, production has never been higher over the first ten months of the year at 3.94 million b/d—about 190,000 b/d (5%) higher than during the same period last year.

Oil sands production accounted for 84% of output in October while conventional production and condensate accounted for the remaining 16%.

Higher oil output has been enabled by the start-up of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) and is a key driver of Alberta’s growth this year.

While there is some room to bring on even more export capacity through efficiency improvements and crude-by-rail options, future oil production in Alberta will once again bump up against transportation constraints as the TMX fills. Speculation has stirred about Trump re-approving Keystone XL, but major hurdles would need to be overcome for the private sector to undertake this project.

With President-Elect Trump proposing a 25% tariff on Canadian goods last week, it’s extra notable that Alberta broke yet another oil production record because the main market for that oil is the United States. Almost all of Alberta’s international oil exports went to the U.S. last year, but there has been a jump in Asian bound oil shipments with TMX coming on line earlier this year.

Answer to the previous trivia question: The official name of Mexico is the United Mexican States.

Today’s trivia question: How many barrels per day of capacity would the cancelled The Keystone XL oil pipeline project from Hardisty, Alberta, to Steele City, Nebraska have created?